Atrial fibrillation: trends in prevalence and antithrombotic prescriptions in the community

INTRODUCTION: In the past decade, the atrial fibrillation (AF) landscape, including the treatment modalities, has drastically changed. This raises the question how AF prevalence and choices in antithrombotic therapy prescription have developed in the community over time. METHODS: Routine care data from the Julius General Practitioners’ Network (JGPN) were used to calculate the yearly prevalence of AF and to quantify the percentage of all patients who were prescribed a platelet inhibitor, vitamin K antagonist (VKA), non-VKA oral anticoagulant (NOAC) or no antithrombotic medication. To explore whether certain patient characteristics are associated with selective prescription of oral anticoagulants (OAC), we applied logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: From 2008 through 2017, the JGPN database included 7459 unique AF patients. During this period, the prevalence of AF increased from 0.4% to 1.4%. The percentage of patients prescribed a VKA declined from 47% to 41%, whereas the percentage of patients prescribed a NOAC rose from 0% to 20%. In patients with new-onset AF, older age, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, vascular disease and dementia were independently associated with a higher likelihood of VKA rather than NOAC prescription. In 2017, 25% of all patients with AF and a CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score ≥ 2 were not prescribed OAC therapy (i.e. 8% with platelet inhibitor monotherapy and 17% without any antithrombotic therapy). CONCLUSION: Between 2008 and 2017, AF prevalence in the community more than tripled. Prescription patterns showed possible ‘channelling’ of VKAs over NOACs in frailer, elderly patients, whereas still about one in every four AF patients with a CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score ≥ 2 was not prescribed any prophylactic OAC therapy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version of this article (10.1007/s12471-022-01667-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.