Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for early stage non-small cell lung cancer: a study based on the SEER database and a Chinese cohort

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to construct a nomogram to effectively predict the overall survival (OS) of patients with early-stage non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). METHODS: For the training and internal validation cohorts, a total of 26,941 patients with stage I and II NSCLC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. A nomogram was constructed based on the risk factors affecting prognosis using a Cox proportional hazards regression model. And 505 patients were recruited from Jiaxing First Hospital for external validation. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were evaluated by C-index and calibration curves. RESULTS: A Nomogram was created after identifying independent prognostic factors using univariate and multifactorial factor analysis. The C-index of this nomogram was 0.726 (95% CI, 0.718–0.735) and 0.721 (95% CI, 0.709–0.734) in the training cohort and the internal validation cohort, respectively, and 0.758 (95% CI, 0.691–0.825) in the external validation cohort, which indicates that the model has good discrimination. Calibration curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS probabilities showed good agreement between predicted and actual survival. In addition, DCA analysis showed that the net benefit of the new model was significantly higher than that of the TNM staging system. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a survival prediction model for patients with non-small cell lung cancer in the early stages. This new nomogram is superior to the traditional TNM staging system and can guide clinicians to make the best clinical decisions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10067-8.