A combined theory-based explanatory model for predicting tourists’ travel intentions during the COVID-19 pandemic: the role of individual’s assessment of the compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and tourist’s assessments of non-pharmaceutical public-health interventions (NPIs) in relation to their travel intentions. It uses a combined theoretical model that incorporates the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking Scale (DOSPERT) in the recreational domain, the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). A large-scale population study that is representative of Switzerland has been carried out to validate the model (N = 1683; 39% response rate). We use a regression model based on mean indices for our explanatory model. Health beliefs, namely perceived susceptibility and severity, are important predictors of travel intentions. The perceived benefits of and barriers to compliance with NPIs when travelling also have a substantial influence on travel intentions. The results demonstrated that the factors of the HBM tend to have a stronger influence than other significant factors, such as the perceived behavioural control of the TPB. As a situational context, the ability to work from home increases the intention to travel. The achievement of the present research is a validated empirical theory-based model that is suitable for practical and managerial implications. It can be used to create and evaluate measures and interventions that address the social psychological influencing factors.