Preoperative risk factors for early recurrence after resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND: Early recurrence after curative resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC) often occurs within a year of surgery. Preoperative predictors of early recurrence remain unclear. The aim of this study was to define reliable preoperative predictors of early recurrence. METHODS: Medical records and preoperative multidetector-row CT of patients with PHCC who underwent resection between 2002 and 2018 were reviewed. Clinical findings, tumour markers, and radiological appearances including a ‘periductal enation sign’ (PES) where there was evidence of soft tissue enhancement appearing to arise from the extrahepatic bile duct, were analysed. RESULTS: Among 261 patients who underwent resection for PHCC, 67 (25.7 per cent) developed early recurrence. Multivariable analysis identified four preoperative risk factors for early recurrence, namely carbohydrate antigen 19–9 (CA19-9) 37 U/ml or higher (OR 2.19, 95 per cent confidence interval (c.i.) 1.08 to 4.46), positive PES (OR 7.37, 95 per cent c.i. 2.46 to 22.10), mass-forming tumour (OR 4.46, 95 per cent c.i. 1.83 to 10.90), and luminal-occlusion tumour (OR 4.52, 95 per cent c.i. 2.11 to 9.68). The OR of preoperative risk factors were used to define four risk subgroups for early recurrence. The early recurrence rates in the low, moderate, high, and very-high risk groups were 0, 9.4 , 39.7, and 65.0 per cent respectively. CONCLUSION: CA19-9, PES, mass-forming tumour, and luminal-occlusion tumour identify patients at higher risk for early recurrence after resection of PHCC.