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Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies

As the world's biggest carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emitter and the largest developing country, China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years. This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints...

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Autores principales: He, Jiankun, Li, Zheng, Zhang, Xiliang, Wang, Hailin, Dong, Wenjuan, Du, Ershun, Chang, Shiyan, Ou, Xunmin, Guo, Siyue, Tian, Zhiyu, Gu, Alun, Teng, Fei, Hu, Bin, Yang, Xiu, Chen, Siyuan, Yao, Mingtao, Yuan, Zhiyi, Zhou, Li, Zhao, Xiaofan, Li, Ying, Zhang, Danwei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9488042/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36157858
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2021.100134
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author He, Jiankun
Li, Zheng
Zhang, Xiliang
Wang, Hailin
Dong, Wenjuan
Du, Ershun
Chang, Shiyan
Ou, Xunmin
Guo, Siyue
Tian, Zhiyu
Gu, Alun
Teng, Fei
Hu, Bin
Yang, Xiu
Chen, Siyuan
Yao, Mingtao
Yuan, Zhiyi
Zhou, Li
Zhao, Xiaofan
Li, Ying
Zhang, Danwei
author_facet He, Jiankun
Li, Zheng
Zhang, Xiliang
Wang, Hailin
Dong, Wenjuan
Du, Ershun
Chang, Shiyan
Ou, Xunmin
Guo, Siyue
Tian, Zhiyu
Gu, Alun
Teng, Fei
Hu, Bin
Yang, Xiu
Chen, Siyuan
Yao, Mingtao
Yuan, Zhiyi
Zhou, Li
Zhao, Xiaofan
Li, Ying
Zhang, Danwei
author_sort He, Jiankun
collection PubMed
description As the world's biggest carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emitter and the largest developing country, China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years. This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints required by the Paris Agreement, by developing six long-term development scenarios, and conducting a quantitative evaluation on the carbon emissions pathways, energy transformation, technology, policy and investment demand for each scenario. This study combined both bottom-up and top-down methodologies, including simulations and analyses of energy consumption of end-use and power sectors (bottom-up), as well as scenario analysis, investment demand and technology evaluation at the macro level (top-down). This study demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 translates to significant efforts and overwhelming challenges for China. To comply with the target, a high rate of an average annual reduction of CO(2) emissions by 9.3% from 2030 to 2050 is a necessity, which requires a huge investment demand. For example, in the 1.5 °C scenario, an investment in energy infrastructure alone equivalent to 2.6% of that year's GDP will be necessary. The technological pathway towards carbon neutrality will rely highly on both conventional emission reduction technologies and breakthrough technologies. China needs to balance a long-term development strategy of lower greenhouse gas emissions that meets both the Paris Agreement and the long-term goals for domestic economic and social development, with a phased implementation for both its five-year and long-term plans.
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spelling pubmed-94880422022-09-23 Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies He, Jiankun Li, Zheng Zhang, Xiliang Wang, Hailin Dong, Wenjuan Du, Ershun Chang, Shiyan Ou, Xunmin Guo, Siyue Tian, Zhiyu Gu, Alun Teng, Fei Hu, Bin Yang, Xiu Chen, Siyuan Yao, Mingtao Yuan, Zhiyi Zhou, Li Zhao, Xiaofan Li, Ying Zhang, Danwei Environ Sci Ecotechnol Original Research As the world's biggest carbon dioxide (CO(2)) emitter and the largest developing country, China faces daunting challenges to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality within 40 years. This study fully considered the carbon-neutrality goal and the temperature rise constraints required by the Paris Agreement, by developing six long-term development scenarios, and conducting a quantitative evaluation on the carbon emissions pathways, energy transformation, technology, policy and investment demand for each scenario. This study combined both bottom-up and top-down methodologies, including simulations and analyses of energy consumption of end-use and power sectors (bottom-up), as well as scenario analysis, investment demand and technology evaluation at the macro level (top-down). This study demonstrates that achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 translates to significant efforts and overwhelming challenges for China. To comply with the target, a high rate of an average annual reduction of CO(2) emissions by 9.3% from 2030 to 2050 is a necessity, which requires a huge investment demand. For example, in the 1.5 °C scenario, an investment in energy infrastructure alone equivalent to 2.6% of that year's GDP will be necessary. The technological pathway towards carbon neutrality will rely highly on both conventional emission reduction technologies and breakthrough technologies. China needs to balance a long-term development strategy of lower greenhouse gas emissions that meets both the Paris Agreement and the long-term goals for domestic economic and social development, with a phased implementation for both its five-year and long-term plans. Elsevier 2021-12-02 /pmc/articles/PMC9488042/ /pubmed/36157858 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2021.100134 Text en © 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences, Harbin Institute of Technology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original Research
He, Jiankun
Li, Zheng
Zhang, Xiliang
Wang, Hailin
Dong, Wenjuan
Du, Ershun
Chang, Shiyan
Ou, Xunmin
Guo, Siyue
Tian, Zhiyu
Gu, Alun
Teng, Fei
Hu, Bin
Yang, Xiu
Chen, Siyuan
Yao, Mingtao
Yuan, Zhiyi
Zhou, Li
Zhao, Xiaofan
Li, Ying
Zhang, Danwei
Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
title Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
title_full Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
title_fullStr Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
title_full_unstemmed Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
title_short Towards carbon neutrality: A study on China's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
title_sort towards carbon neutrality: a study on china's long-term low-carbon transition pathways and strategies
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9488042/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36157858
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ese.2021.100134
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