Low skeletal muscle radiodensity and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio as predictors of poor outcome in patients with COVID-19

Inflammatory states and body composition changes are associated with a poor prognosis in many diseases, but their role in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not fully understood. To assess the impact of low skeletal muscle radiodensity (SMD), high neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and a composite score based on both variables, on complications, use of ventilatory support, and survival in patients with COVID-19. Medical records of patients hospitalized between May 1, 2020, and July 31, 2020, with a laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19 who underwent computed tomography (CT) were retrospectively reviewed. CT-derived body composition measurements assessed at the first lumbar vertebra level, and laboratory tests performed at diagnosis, were used to calculate SMD and NLR. Prognostic values were estimated via univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and the Kaplan–Meier curve. The study was approved by the local Institutional Review Board (CAAE 36276620.2.0000.5404). A total of 200 patients were included. Among the patients assessed, median age was 59 years, 58% were men and 45% required ICU care. A total of 45 (22.5%) patients died. Multivariate logistic analysis demonstrated that a low SMD (OR 2.94; 95% CI 1.13–7.66, P = 0.027), high NLR (OR 3.96; 95% CI 1.24–12.69, P = 0.021) and both low SMD and high NLR (OR 25.58; 95% CI 2.37–276.71, P = 0.008) combined, were associated with an increased risk of death. Patients who had both low SMD and high NLR required more mechanical ventilation (P < 0.001) and were hospitalized for a longer period (P < 0.001). Low SMD, high NLR and the composite score can predict poor prognosis in patients with COVID-19, and can be used as a tool for early identification of patients at risk. Systemic inflammation and low muscle radiodensity are useful predictors of poor prognosis, and the assessment of these factors in clinical practice should be considered.