The UK Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme and smoking, alcohol consumption and vaping during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from eight longitudinal population surveys

BACKGROUND: Employment disruptions can impact smoking and alcohol consumption. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries implemented furlough schemes to prevent job loss. We examine how furlough was associated with smoking, vaping and alcohol consumption in the UK. METHODS: Data from 27,841 participants in eight UK adult longitudinal surveys were analysed. Participants self-reported employment status and current smoking, current vaping and alcohol consumption (>4 days/week or 5+ drinks per typical occasion) both before and during the early stages of the pandemic (April–July 2020). Risk ratios were estimated within each study using modified Poisson regression, adjusting for a range of potential confounders, including pre-pandemic behaviour. Findings were synthesised using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Compared to stable employment and after adjustment for pre-pandemic characteristics, furlough was not associated with smoking (ARR = 1.05; 95% CI: 0.95–1.16; I(2): 10%), vaping (ARR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.74–1.08; I(2): 0%) or drinking (ARR = 1.03; 95% CI: 0.94–1.13; I(2): 48%). There were similar findings for no longer being employed, and stable unemployment, though this varied by sex: stable unemployment was associated with smoking for women (ARR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.00–1.82; I(2): 47%) but not men (0.84; 95% CI: 0.67–1.05; I(2): 0%). No longer being employed was associated with vaping among women (ARR = 2.74; 95% CI: 1.59–4.72; I(2): 0%) but not men (ARR = 1.25; 95% CI: 0.83–1.87; I(2): 0%). CONCLUSIONS: We found no clear evidence of furlough or unemployment having adverse impacts on smoking, vaping or drinking behaviours during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. Differences in risk compared to those who remained employed were largely explained by pre-pandemic characteristics. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-022-02511-0.