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A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation

BACKGROUND: The counts of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) in predicting the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a controversial issue. We conducted a retrospective study to develop an ELNs-based model to individualize ESCC prognosis. METHODS: Patients with ESCC from t...

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Autores principales: Yang, Tianbao, Huang, Shijie, Chen, Boyang, Chen, Yahua, Liang, Wei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9489949/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36157416
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.989408
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author Yang, Tianbao
Huang, Shijie
Chen, Boyang
Chen, Yahua
Liang, Wei
author_facet Yang, Tianbao
Huang, Shijie
Chen, Boyang
Chen, Yahua
Liang, Wei
author_sort Yang, Tianbao
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The counts of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) in predicting the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a controversial issue. We conducted a retrospective study to develop an ELNs-based model to individualize ESCC prognosis. METHODS: Patients with ESCC from the SEER database and our center were strictly screened. The optimal threshold value was determine by the X-tile software. A prognostic model for ESCC patients was developed and validated with R. The model’s efficacy was evaluated by C-index, ROC curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: 3,629 cases and 286 cases were screened from the SEER database and our center, respectively. The optimal cut-off value of ELNs was 10. Based on this, we constructed a model with a favorable C-index (training group: 0.708; external group 1: 0.687; external group 2: 0.652). The model performance evaluated with ROC curve is still reliable among the groups. 1-year AUC for nomogram in three groups (i.e., 0.753, 0.761, and 0.686) were superior to that of the TNM stage (P < 0.05). Similarly, the 3-year AUC and the 5-year AUC results for the model were also higher than that of the 8th TNM stage. By contrast, DCA showed the benefit of this model was better in the same follow-up period. CONCLUSION: More than 10 ELNs are helpful to evaluate the survival of ESCC patients. Based on this, an improved model for predicting the prognosis of ESCC patients was proposed.
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spelling pubmed-94899492022-09-22 A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation Yang, Tianbao Huang, Shijie Chen, Boyang Chen, Yahua Liang, Wei Front Surg Surgery BACKGROUND: The counts of examined lymph nodes (ELNs) in predicting the prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is a controversial issue. We conducted a retrospective study to develop an ELNs-based model to individualize ESCC prognosis. METHODS: Patients with ESCC from the SEER database and our center were strictly screened. The optimal threshold value was determine by the X-tile software. A prognostic model for ESCC patients was developed and validated with R. The model’s efficacy was evaluated by C-index, ROC curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: 3,629 cases and 286 cases were screened from the SEER database and our center, respectively. The optimal cut-off value of ELNs was 10. Based on this, we constructed a model with a favorable C-index (training group: 0.708; external group 1: 0.687; external group 2: 0.652). The model performance evaluated with ROC curve is still reliable among the groups. 1-year AUC for nomogram in three groups (i.e., 0.753, 0.761, and 0.686) were superior to that of the TNM stage (P < 0.05). Similarly, the 3-year AUC and the 5-year AUC results for the model were also higher than that of the 8th TNM stage. By contrast, DCA showed the benefit of this model was better in the same follow-up period. CONCLUSION: More than 10 ELNs are helpful to evaluate the survival of ESCC patients. Based on this, an improved model for predicting the prognosis of ESCC patients was proposed. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-09-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9489949/ /pubmed/36157416 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.989408 Text en © 2022 Yang, Huang, Chen, Chen and Liang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Surgery
Yang, Tianbao
Huang, Shijie
Chen, Boyang
Chen, Yahua
Liang, Wei
A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation
title A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation
title_full A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation
title_fullStr A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation
title_full_unstemmed A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation
title_short A modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: A study based on SEER database and external validation
title_sort modified survival model for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma based on lymph nodes: a study based on seer database and external validation
topic Surgery
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9489949/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36157416
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.989408
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