Pre-thrombectomy prognostic prediction of large-vessel ischemic stroke using machine learning: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION: Machine learning (ML) methods are being increasingly applied to prognostic prediction for stroke patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO) treated with endovascular thrombectomy. This systematic review aims to summarize ML-based pre-thrombectomy prognostic models for LVO stroke and identify key research gaps. METHODS: Literature searches were performed in Embase, PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. Meta-analyses of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) of ML models were conducted to synthesize model performance. RESULTS: Sixteen studies describing 19 models were eligible. The predicted outcomes include functional outcome at 90 days, successful reperfusion, and hemorrhagic transformation. Functional outcome was analyzed by 10 conventional ML models (pooled AUC=0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77–0.85, AUC range: 0.68–0.93) and four deep learning (DL) models (pooled AUC=0.75, 95% CI: 0.70–0.81, AUC range: 0.71–0.81). Successful reperfusion was analyzed by three conventional ML models (pooled AUC=0.72, 95% CI: 0.56–0.88, AUC range: 0.55–0.88) and one DL model (AUC=0.65, 95% CI: 0.62–0.68). CONCLUSIONS: Conventional ML and DL models have shown variable performance in predicting post-treatment outcomes of LVO without generally demonstrating superiority compared to existing prognostic scores. Most models were developed using small datasets, lacked solid external validation, and at high risk of potential bias. There is considerable scope to improve study design and model performance. The application of ML and DL methods to improve the prediction of prognosis in LVO stroke, while promising, remains nascent. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42021266524, identifier CRD42021266524