Predictive validity of admission criteria in predicting academic performance of medical students: A retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION: Admission to medical school is one of the most competitive entry points in higher education. Medical school admissions committees need accurate and precise screening tools to select among well-qualified applicants. This study explores data from a cohort of graduated medical students over 6 years to offer a critical perspective on predictive validity in medical school admissions. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of 160 students was performed to identify the predictive validity of admission criteria for medical students to predict academic performance over 6 years for a cohort of all students enrolled in the medical program during the academic year 2013–2014. RESULTS: The main results indicated that there was a statistically significant positive correlation between the admission criteria and Students’ performance in Year 1, Year 4, B.Sc. (Bachelor of Medical Science) exam, and Medical Doctor (MD) exam across the 6 years of the medical program, except for the English Test, which showed that there was no significant correlation with average MD exam scores for students who enrolled directly in Year 1. The results related to students who were admitted to the Foundation Program showed that there was no significant correlation between high school Grade Point Average (HSGPA) and their academic performance in Year 1, Year 4, B.Sc. exam, and MD exam. The overall results related to all study samples indicated that all predictor variables correlate significantly with all outcome variables (academic performance), and the results showed that Science test scores demonstrated 27.7, 15.0, 19.7, and 12.6% of variation in Students’ performance in Year 1, Year 4, B.Sc. exam, and MD exam, respectively. CONCLUSION: Science test scores were found to be more predictive of academic performance compared to other predictors. Not all the admission criteria used for student selection are good indicators of their achievement in the medical program. It is recommended that other valid and reliable admission tools, such as the multiple mini-interviews and the questionnaire for a candidate’s suitability to follow a problem-based learning curriculum, should be considered.