Predictors of Short-Term Outcomes in Living Donor Renal Allograft Recipients: A Prospective Study From a Tertiary Care Center in North India

Background Renal transplantation is the optimal treatment for patients of all ages with end-stage kidney disease. The long-term outcomes of renal transplantation are assessed by graft and patient survival rates. These outcomes are, in turn, influenced by post-transplant events such as delayed graft function, rejections, post-transplant infections, and post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM). Each of these short-term outcomes is, in turn, determined by the interplay of various factors in the pre-, peri-, and post-transplant period. This prospective study was designed to understand the factors affecting short-term outcomes in living donor transplantation and their effect on graft and patient survival. Methodology A total of 86 patients underwent live donor renal transplantation between January 1, 2015, and March 31, 2016, at a tertiary care hospital in north India. Of these, five were lost to follow-up, and the remaining 81 patients were prospectively followed up to December 31, 2017. Results The majority of the recipients were males (91%) and the donors were females (74%). Spousal and related donors comprised 49% and 51% of donations, respectively. The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of donors was 98 ± 9.2 mL/minute/1.73m². Induction therapy with basiliximab was given to 21/81 (26%) recipients. The majority of recipients (68/81, 84%) received triple-drug immunosuppression with prednisolone, tacrolimus, and mycophenolate mofetil. Delayed graft function (DGF) occurred in 4/81 (4.9%) cases. Biopsy-proven acute rejections (BPARs) occurred in 15/81 (18.5%) cases, two-thirds of which were acute antibody-mediated rejections (ABMRs). During the follow-up period, 50 episodes of infections occurred in 35/81 (43.2%) recipients, with the most common being urinary tract infection (23/81, 28.5%). PTDM was diagnosed in 22/81 (27.2%) patients beyond six weeks of transplant. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the most significant predictor of DGF was acute rejections and vice versa. Acute rejections also predicted the occurrence of post-transplant infections. Pre-transplant hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and cyclosporine-based therapy were significant predictors of PTDM. At the six-month follow-up, 10/81 (12.3%) patients developed graft dysfunction. The predictors of graft dysfunction at six months were recipients of related donors and rural patients. One-year graft survival, death-censored graft survival, and patient survival rates were 85.2%, 92.6%, and 91.3%, respectively. The most common cause of death was post-transplant infections (5/7, 71.4%) of which the majority (4/5, 80%) were fungal infections. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, the most significant predictor of graft loss and patient loss was low pre-transplant donor eGFR and PTDM, respectively. Conclusions Graft and patient survival in living donor kidney transplantation are influenced by a multitude of interdependent factors during the pre-transplant (donor eGFR, type of donor, socioeconomic status, HCV infection in recipient, type of immunosuppression) and the post-transplant (DGF, rejections, infections, and PTDM) period.