Tree-Based Algorithms and Association Rule Mining for Predicting Patients’ Neurological Outcomes After First-Aid Treatment for an Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest During COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Data Mining

OBJECTIVE: The authors performed several tree-based algorithms and an association rules mining as data mining tools to find useful determinants for neurological outcomes in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients as well as to assess the effect of the first-aid and basic characteristics in the EMS system. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study. The outcome was Cerebral Performance Categories grading on OHCA patients at hospital discharge. Decision tree-based models inclusive of C4.5 algorithm, classification and regression tree and random forest were built to determine an OHCA patient’s prognosis. Association rules mining was another data mining method which we used to find the combination of prognostic factors linked to the outcome. RESULTS: The total of 3520 patients were included in the final analysis. The mean age was 67.53 (±18.4) year-old and 63.4% were men. To overcome the imbalance outcome issue in machine learning, the random forest has a better predictive ability for OHCA patients in overall accuracy (91.19%), weighted precision (88.76%), weighted recall (91.20%) and F1 score (0.9) by oversampling adjustment. Under association rules mining, patients who had any witness on the spot when encountering OHCA or who had ever ROSC during first-aid would be highly correlated with good CPC prognosis. CONCLUSION: The random forest has a better predictive ability for OHCA patients. This paper provides a role model applying several machine learning algorithms to the first-aid clinical assessment that will be promising combining with Artificial Intelligence for applying to emergency medical services.