Prognostic value of hepatocyte growth factor for muscle-invasive bladder cancer

PURPOSE: The HGF/MET pathway is involved in cell motility, angiogenesis, proliferation, and cancer invasion. We assessed the clinical utility of plasma HGF level as a prognostic biomarker in patients with MIBC. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 565 patients with MIBC who underwent radical cystectomy. Logistic regression and Cox regression models were used, and predictive accuracies were estimated using the area under the curve and concordance index. To estimate the clinical utility of HGF, DCA and MCID were applied. RESULTS: Plasma HGF level was significantly higher in patients with advanced pathologic stage and LN metastasis (p = 0.01 and p < 0.001, respectively). Higher HGF levels were associated with an increased risk of harboring LN metastasis and non-organ-confined disease (OR1.21, 95%CI 1.12–1.32, p < 0.001, and OR1.35, 95%CI 1.23–1.48, p < 0.001, respectively) on multivariable analyses; the addition of HGF improved the predictive accuracies of a standard preoperative model (+ 7%, p < 0.001 and + 8%, p < 0.001, respectively). According to the DCA and MCID, half of the patients had a net benefit by including HGF, but the absolute magnitude remained limited. In pre- and postoperative predictive models, a higher HGF level was significant prognosticator of worse RFS, OS, and CSS; in the preoperative model, the addition of HGF improved accuracies by 6% and 5% for RFS and CSS, respectively. CONCLUSION: Preoperative HGF identified MIBC patients who harbored features of clinically and biologically aggressive disease. Plasma HGF could serve, as part of a panel, as a biomarker to aid in preoperative treatment planning regarding intensity of treatment in patients with clinical MIBC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00432-021-03887-x.