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Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays

COVID-19 pandemic remains serious around the world and causes huge deaths and economic losses. To investigate the effect of vaccination and isolation delays on the transmission of COVID-19, we propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with vaccination and isolation delays. The basic repr...

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Autores principales: Song, Haitao, Wang, Ruifeng, Liu, Shengqiang, Jin, Zhen, He, Daihai
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9508703/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36185819
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.106011
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author Song, Haitao
Wang, Ruifeng
Liu, Shengqiang
Jin, Zhen
He, Daihai
author_facet Song, Haitao
Wang, Ruifeng
Liu, Shengqiang
Jin, Zhen
He, Daihai
author_sort Song, Haitao
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 pandemic remains serious around the world and causes huge deaths and economic losses. To investigate the effect of vaccination and isolation delays on the transmission of COVID-19, we propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with vaccination and isolation delays. The basic reproduction number is computed, and the global dynamics of the model are proved. When [Formula: see text] , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Based on the public information, parameter values are estimated, and sensitivity analysis is carried out by the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and the extended version of the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (eFAST). Our results suggest that the isolation rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals have a significant impact on the transmission of COVID-19. When the COVID-19 is epidemic, the optimal control strategies of our model with vaccination and isolation delays are analyzed. Under the limited resource with constant and time-varying isolation rates, we find that the optimal isolation rates may minimize the cumulative number of infected individuals and the cost of disease control, and effectively contain the transmission of COVID-19. Our study may help public health to prevent and control the COVID-19 spread.
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spelling pubmed-95087032022-09-26 Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays Song, Haitao Wang, Ruifeng Liu, Shengqiang Jin, Zhen He, Daihai Results Phys Article COVID-19 pandemic remains serious around the world and causes huge deaths and economic losses. To investigate the effect of vaccination and isolation delays on the transmission of COVID-19, we propose a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission with vaccination and isolation delays. The basic reproduction number is computed, and the global dynamics of the model are proved. When [Formula: see text] , the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. The unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text]. Based on the public information, parameter values are estimated, and sensitivity analysis is carried out by the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) and the extended version of the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test (eFAST). Our results suggest that the isolation rates of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals have a significant impact on the transmission of COVID-19. When the COVID-19 is epidemic, the optimal control strategies of our model with vaccination and isolation delays are analyzed. Under the limited resource with constant and time-varying isolation rates, we find that the optimal isolation rates may minimize the cumulative number of infected individuals and the cost of disease control, and effectively contain the transmission of COVID-19. Our study may help public health to prevent and control the COVID-19 spread. The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. 2022-11 2022-09-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9508703/ /pubmed/36185819 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.106011 Text en © 2022 The Author(s) Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Song, Haitao
Wang, Ruifeng
Liu, Shengqiang
Jin, Zhen
He, Daihai
Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
title Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
title_full Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
title_fullStr Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
title_full_unstemmed Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
title_short Global stability and optimal control for a COVID-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
title_sort global stability and optimal control for a covid-19 model with vaccination and isolation delays
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9508703/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36185819
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.106011
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