Cargando…
Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia
OBJECTIVES: There have been no fully validated tools for the rapid identification of surgical patients at risk of intraoperative hypothermia. The objective of this study was to validate the performance of a previously established prediction model in estimating the risk of intraoperative hypothermia...
Autores principales: | , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Hindawi
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9509213/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36187909 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6806225 |
_version_ | 1784797186394947584 |
---|---|
author | Dai, Ziyi Zhang, Yuelun Yi, Jie Huang, Yuguang |
author_facet | Dai, Ziyi Zhang, Yuelun Yi, Jie Huang, Yuguang |
author_sort | Dai, Ziyi |
collection | PubMed |
description | OBJECTIVES: There have been no fully validated tools for the rapid identification of surgical patients at risk of intraoperative hypothermia. The objective of this study was to validate the performance of a previously established prediction model in estimating the risk of intraoperative hypothermia in a prospective cohort. METHODS: In this observational study, consecutive adults scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia were enrolled prospectively at a tertiary hospital between September 4, 2020, and December 28, 2020. An intraoperative hypothermia risk score was calculated by a mobile application of the prediction model. A wireless axillary thermometer was used to continuously measure perioperative core temperature as the reference standard. The discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and Brier score. RESULTS: Among 227 participants, 99 (43.6%) developed intraoperative hypothermia, and 10 (4.6%) received intraoperative active warming with forced-air warming. The model had an AUC of 0.700 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.632–0.768) in the overall cohort with adequate calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ(2) = 13.8, P=0.087; Brier score = 0.33 [95% CI, 0.29–0.37]). We categorized the risk scores into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, in which the incidence of intraoperative hypothermia was 23.0% (95% CI, 12.4–33.5), 43.4% (95% CI, 33.7–53.2), and 62.7% (95% CI, 51.5–74.3), respectively (P for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The intraoperative hypothermia prediction model demonstrated possibly helpful discrimination and adequate calibration in our prospective validation. These findings suggest that the risk screening model could facilitate future perioperative temperature management. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9509213 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Hindawi |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-95092132022-09-29 Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia Dai, Ziyi Zhang, Yuelun Yi, Jie Huang, Yuguang Int J Clin Pract Research Article OBJECTIVES: There have been no fully validated tools for the rapid identification of surgical patients at risk of intraoperative hypothermia. The objective of this study was to validate the performance of a previously established prediction model in estimating the risk of intraoperative hypothermia in a prospective cohort. METHODS: In this observational study, consecutive adults scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia were enrolled prospectively at a tertiary hospital between September 4, 2020, and December 28, 2020. An intraoperative hypothermia risk score was calculated by a mobile application of the prediction model. A wireless axillary thermometer was used to continuously measure perioperative core temperature as the reference standard. The discrimination and calibration of the model were assessed, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and Brier score. RESULTS: Among 227 participants, 99 (43.6%) developed intraoperative hypothermia, and 10 (4.6%) received intraoperative active warming with forced-air warming. The model had an AUC of 0.700 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.632–0.768) in the overall cohort with adequate calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ(2) = 13.8, P=0.087; Brier score = 0.33 [95% CI, 0.29–0.37]). We categorized the risk scores into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, in which the incidence of intraoperative hypothermia was 23.0% (95% CI, 12.4–33.5), 43.4% (95% CI, 33.7–53.2), and 62.7% (95% CI, 51.5–74.3), respectively (P for trend <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The intraoperative hypothermia prediction model demonstrated possibly helpful discrimination and adequate calibration in our prospective validation. These findings suggest that the risk screening model could facilitate future perioperative temperature management. Hindawi 2022-09-17 /pmc/articles/PMC9509213/ /pubmed/36187909 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6806225 Text en Copyright © 2022 Ziyi Dai et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Dai, Ziyi Zhang, Yuelun Yi, Jie Huang, Yuguang Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia |
title | Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia |
title_full | Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia |
title_fullStr | Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia |
title_full_unstemmed | Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia |
title_short | Validation of a Prediction Model for Intraoperative Hypothermia in Patients Receiving General Anesthesia |
title_sort | validation of a prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia in patients receiving general anesthesia |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9509213/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36187909 http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/6806225 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT daiziyi validationofapredictionmodelforintraoperativehypothermiainpatientsreceivinggeneralanesthesia AT zhangyuelun validationofapredictionmodelforintraoperativehypothermiainpatientsreceivinggeneralanesthesia AT yijie validationofapredictionmodelforintraoperativehypothermiainpatientsreceivinggeneralanesthesia AT huangyuguang validationofapredictionmodelforintraoperativehypothermiainpatientsreceivinggeneralanesthesia |