The prognostic role of early tumor shrinkage in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing immunotherapy

BACKGROUND: Early tumor shrinkage (ETS) has been identified as a promising imaging biomarker for patients undergoing immunotherapy for several cancer entities. This study aimed to validate the potential of ETS as an imaging biomarker for patients undergoing immunotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: We screened all patients with HCC that received immunotherapy as the first or subsequent line of treatment at our tertiary care center between 2016 and 2021. ETS was defined as the reduction in the sum of the sizes of target lesions, between the initial imaging and the first follow-up. The ETS was compared to the radiologic response, according to the modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST). Furthermore, we evaluated the influence of ETS on overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response. RESULTS: The final analysis included 39 patients with available cross-sectional imaging acquired at the initiation of immunotherapy (baseline) and after 8–14 weeks. The median ETS was 5.4%. ETS was significantly correlated with the response according to mRECIST and with the AFP response. Patients with an ETS ≥10% had significantly longer survival times after the first follow-up, compared to patients with < 10% ETS (15.1 months vs. 4.0 months, p = 0.008). Additionally, patients with both an ETS ≥10% and disease control, according to mRECIST, also had significantly prolonged PFS times after the initial follow-up (23.6 months vs. 2.4 months, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: ETS was strongly associated with survival outcomes in patients with HCC undergoing immunotherapy. Thus, ETS is a readily assessable imaging biomarker that showed potential for facilitating a timely identification of patients with HCC that might benefit from immunotherapy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-022-00487-x.