Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic

The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A cont...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Arino, Julien, Milliken, Evan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2022
Materias:
Original Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9510491/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36149585
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5
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author Arino, Julien
Milliken, Evan
author_facet Arino, Julien
Milliken, Evan
author_sort Arino, Julien
collection PubMed
description The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A continuous-time Markov chain model of a simple two-patch epidemic is presented. An algorithm for formalizing what is meant by small is presented, and the effect of movement on the duration of the early stochastic phase of an epidemic is studied.
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spelling pubmed-95104912022-09-26 Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic Arino, Julien Milliken, Evan Bull Math Biol Original Article The early phase of an epidemic is characterized by a small number of infected individuals, implying that stochastic effects drive the dynamics of the disease. Mathematically, we define the stochastic phase as the time during which the number of infected individuals remains small and positive. A continuous-time Markov chain model of a simple two-patch epidemic is presented. An algorithm for formalizing what is meant by small is presented, and the effect of movement on the duration of the early stochastic phase of an epidemic is studied. Springer US 2022-09-23 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9510491/ /pubmed/36149585 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Article
Arino, Julien
Milliken, Evan
Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
title Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
title_full Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
title_fullStr Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
title_full_unstemmed Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
title_short Effect of Movement on the Early Phase of an Epidemic
title_sort effect of movement on the early phase of an epidemic
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9510491/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36149585
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01077-5
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