Risk factors for future osteoporosis in perimenopausal Japanese women

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to investigate trends in bone mineral density (BMD) loss and related factors in early postmenopausal women in Japan, identify risk factors for future osteoporosis, and predict osteoporosis before it occurs. METHODS: The study population consisted of women who were 50 to 54 years old at the time of the survey in 2002 or 2006. The study included a questionnaire and physical measurement findings (BMD, height, body weight [WT], body mass index [BMI], and handgrip strength). One hundred sixty-seven women continued to participate in the study and had BMD measurements at the 9- or 10-year follow-up of the Japanese Population-based Osteoporosis study. Statistical analyses were performed using Pearson correlation to examine each factor of physical measurement and BMD for lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN). The receiver operating characteristic curve of this data was also predictive of osteoporosis in 2011 for 2002 data; BMD at the age of 50 to 54 years was then used to predict the likelihood of being diagnosed with osteoporosis 9 and 10 years later. RESULTS: At the baseline in 2002 and 2006, WT, BMI, height, and handgrip strength were positively correlated with BMD. The optimal cutoff values for BMD in 2006 to predict osteoporosis in 2016 were LS less than 0.834 g/cm(2) and FN less than 0.702 g/cm(2). These data were also predictive of osteoporosis in 2011 for 2002 data; applying this to the 2002 data, LS/FN had a sensitivity of 92%/100%, a specificity of 87%/81%, a positive predictive value of 55%/48%, and a negative predictive value of 98%/100%. The larger WT and BMI also resulted in a greater decrease in BMD of FN after 9 or 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified a cutoff value for BMD to predict future osteoporosis in menopausal women and found a negative correlation between WT and BMI in menopausal women and changes in BMD of the FN over the next 10 years.