Estimated Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Disparities and Severe COVID-19 Outcomes (from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative)

Although cardiovascular disease risk factors relate to COVID-19, the association of estimated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk with severe COVID-19 is not established. We examined the relation of the pooled-cohort ASCVD risk score to severe COVID-19 among 28,646 subjects from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative database who had positive SARS-CoV-2 test results from April 1, 2020 to April 1, 2021. In addition, 10-year ASCVD risk scores were calculated, and subjects were stratified into low-risk (<5%), borderline-risk (5% to <7.5%), intermediate-risk (7.5% to <20%), and high-risk (>=20%) groups. Severe COVID-19 outcomes (including death, remdesivir treatment, COVID-19 pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and mechanical ventilation) occurring during follow-up were examined individually and as a composite in relation to ASCVD risk group across race and gender. Multiple logistic regression, adjusted for age, gender, and race, examined the relation of ASCVD risk group to the odds of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Our subjects had a mean age of 59.4 years; 14% were black and 57% were female. ASCVD risk group was directly related to severe COVID-19 prevalence. The adjusted odds ratio of the severe composite COVID-19 outcome by risk group (vs the low-risk group) was 1.8 (95% confidence interval 1.5 to 2.2) for the borderline-risk, 2.7 (2.3 to 3.2) for the intermediate-risk, and 4.6 (3.7 to 5.6) for the high-risk group. Black men and black women in the high-risk group showed higher severe COVID-19 prevalence compared with nonblack men and nonblack women. Prevalence of severe COVID-19 outcomes was similar in intermediate-risk black men and high-risk nonblack men (approximately 12%). In conclusion, although further research is needed, the 10-year ASCVD risk score in adults ages 40 to 79 years may be used to identify those who are at highest risk for COVID-19 complications and for whom more intensive treatment may be warranted.