Identification of mild cognitive impairment subtypes predicting conversion to Alzheimer’s disease using multimodal data

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a high-risk condition for conversion to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia. However, individuals with MCI show heterogeneous patterns of pathology and conversion to AD dementia. Thus, detailed subtyping of MCI subjects and accurate prediction of the patients in whom MCI will convert to AD dementia is critical for identifying at-risk populations and the underlying biological features. To this end, we developed a model that simultaneously subtypes MCI subjects and predicts conversion to AD and performed an analysis of the underlying biological characteristics of each subtype. In particular, a heterogeneous mixture learning (HML) method was used to build a decision tree-based model based on multimodal data, including cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarker data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data, APOE genotype data, and age at examination. The HML model showed an average F1 score of 0.721, which was comparable to the random forest method and had significantly more predictive accuracy than the CART method. The HML-generated decision tree was also used to classify-five subtypes of MCI. Each MCI subtype was characterized in terms of the degree of abnormality in CSF biomarkers, brain atrophy, and cognitive decline. The five subtypes of MCI were further categorized into three groups: one subtype with low conversion rates (similar to cognitively normal subjects); three subtypes with moderate conversion rates; and one subtype with high conversion rates (similar to AD dementia patients). The subtypes with moderate conversion rates were subsequently separated into a group with CSF biomarker abnormalities and a group with brain atrophy. The subtypes identified in this study exhibited varying MCI-to-AD conversion rates and differing biological profiles.