Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades

Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring...

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Autores principales: Klitting, Raphaëlle, Kafetzopoulou, Liana E., Thiery, Wim, Dudas, Gytis, Gryseels, Sophie, Kotamarthi, Anjali, Vrancken, Bram, Gangavarapu, Karthik, Momoh, Mambu, Sandi, John Demby, Goba, Augustine, Alhasan, Foday, Grant, Donald S., Okogbenin, Sylvanus, Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim, Garry, Robert F., Smither, Allison R., Zeller, Mark, Pauthner, Matthias G., McGraw, Michelle, Hughes, Laura D., Duraffour, Sophie, Günther, Stephan, Suchard, Marc A., Lemey, Philippe, Andersen, Kristian G., Dellicour, Simon
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9515147/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36167835
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3
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author Klitting, Raphaëlle
Kafetzopoulou, Liana E.
Thiery, Wim
Dudas, Gytis
Gryseels, Sophie
Kotamarthi, Anjali
Vrancken, Bram
Gangavarapu, Karthik
Momoh, Mambu
Sandi, John Demby
Goba, Augustine
Alhasan, Foday
Grant, Donald S.
Okogbenin, Sylvanus
Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim
Garry, Robert F.
Smither, Allison R.
Zeller, Mark
Pauthner, Matthias G.
McGraw, Michelle
Hughes, Laura D.
Duraffour, Sophie
Günther, Stephan
Suchard, Marc A.
Lemey, Philippe
Andersen, Kristian G.
Dellicour, Simon
author_facet Klitting, Raphaëlle
Kafetzopoulou, Liana E.
Thiery, Wim
Dudas, Gytis
Gryseels, Sophie
Kotamarthi, Anjali
Vrancken, Bram
Gangavarapu, Karthik
Momoh, Mambu
Sandi, John Demby
Goba, Augustine
Alhasan, Foday
Grant, Donald S.
Okogbenin, Sylvanus
Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim
Garry, Robert F.
Smither, Allison R.
Zeller, Mark
Pauthner, Matthias G.
McGraw, Michelle
Hughes, Laura D.
Duraffour, Sophie
Günther, Stephan
Suchard, Marc A.
Lemey, Philippe
Andersen, Kristian G.
Dellicour, Simon
author_sort Klitting, Raphaëlle
collection PubMed
description Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades.
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spelling pubmed-95151472022-09-29 Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades Klitting, Raphaëlle Kafetzopoulou, Liana E. Thiery, Wim Dudas, Gytis Gryseels, Sophie Kotamarthi, Anjali Vrancken, Bram Gangavarapu, Karthik Momoh, Mambu Sandi, John Demby Goba, Augustine Alhasan, Foday Grant, Donald S. Okogbenin, Sylvanus Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim Garry, Robert F. Smither, Allison R. Zeller, Mark Pauthner, Matthias G. McGraw, Michelle Hughes, Laura D. Duraffour, Sophie Günther, Stephan Suchard, Marc A. Lemey, Philippe Andersen, Kristian G. Dellicour, Simon Nat Commun Article Lassa fever is a severe viral hemorrhagic fever caused by a zoonotic virus that repeatedly spills over to humans from its rodent reservoirs. It is currently not known how climate and land use changes could affect the endemic area of this virus, currently limited to parts of West Africa. By exploring the environmental data associated with virus occurrence using ecological niche modelling, we show how temperature, precipitation and the presence of pastures determine ecological suitability for virus circulation. Based on projections of climate, land use, and population changes, we find that regions in Central and East Africa will likely become suitable for Lassa virus over the next decades and estimate that the total population living in ecological conditions that are suitable for Lassa virus circulation may drastically increase by 2070. By analysing geotagged viral genomes using spatially-explicit phylogeography and simulating virus dispersal, we find that in the event of Lassa virus being introduced into a new suitable region, its spread might remain spatially limited over the first decades. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-09-27 /pmc/articles/PMC9515147/ /pubmed/36167835 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Klitting, Raphaëlle
Kafetzopoulou, Liana E.
Thiery, Wim
Dudas, Gytis
Gryseels, Sophie
Kotamarthi, Anjali
Vrancken, Bram
Gangavarapu, Karthik
Momoh, Mambu
Sandi, John Demby
Goba, Augustine
Alhasan, Foday
Grant, Donald S.
Okogbenin, Sylvanus
Ogbaini-Emovo, Ephraim
Garry, Robert F.
Smither, Allison R.
Zeller, Mark
Pauthner, Matthias G.
McGraw, Michelle
Hughes, Laura D.
Duraffour, Sophie
Günther, Stephan
Suchard, Marc A.
Lemey, Philippe
Andersen, Kristian G.
Dellicour, Simon
Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
title Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
title_full Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
title_fullStr Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
title_full_unstemmed Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
title_short Predicting the evolution of the Lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
title_sort predicting the evolution of the lassa virus endemic area and population at risk over the next decades
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9515147/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36167835
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33112-3
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