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Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers
PURPOSE: Complications were significantly increased 30 days after Simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty (SBTKA). In this study, an individualized nomogram was established and validated to predict the complications within 30 days after SBTKA. METHODS: The general data of 861 patients (traini...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9515415/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36189401 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.980477 |
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author | Xu, Kuishuai Zhang, Liang Ren, Zhongkai Wang, Tianrui Zhang, Yingze Zhao, Xia Yu, Tengbo |
author_facet | Xu, Kuishuai Zhang, Liang Ren, Zhongkai Wang, Tianrui Zhang, Yingze Zhao, Xia Yu, Tengbo |
author_sort | Xu, Kuishuai |
collection | PubMed |
description | PURPOSE: Complications were significantly increased 30 days after Simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty (SBTKA). In this study, an individualized nomogram was established and validated to predict the complications within 30 days after SBTKA. METHODS: The general data of 861 patients (training set) who received SBTKA in The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 1, 2012 and March 31, 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were divided into complication group (n = 96) and non-complication group (n = 765) according to the incidence of complications within 30 years after SBTKA. Independent risk factors for postoperative SBTKA complications were identified and screened by binary logistic regression analyses, and then a nomogram prediction model was constructed using R software. The area under curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were selected to evaluate the line-chart. Meanwhile, 396 patients receiving SBTKA in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria (test set) were selected to verify the nomogram. RESULTS: Five independent predictors were identified by binary logistic regression analyses and a nomogram was established. The AUC of this nomogram curve is 0.851 (95% CI: 0.819–0.883) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.735–0.900) in the training and testing sets, respectively. In the training set and test set, calibration curves show that nomogram prediction results are in good agreement with actual observation results, and DCA shows that nomogram prediction results have good clinical application value. CONCLUSION: Older age, lower preoperative hemoglobin level, higher preoperative blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, longer operation time, ASA grade ≥ III are independent predictors of SBTKA complications within 30 days after surgery. A nomogram containing these five predictors can accurately predict the risk of complications within 30 days after SBTKA. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9515415 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-95154152022-09-29 Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers Xu, Kuishuai Zhang, Liang Ren, Zhongkai Wang, Tianrui Zhang, Yingze Zhao, Xia Yu, Tengbo Front Surg Surgery PURPOSE: Complications were significantly increased 30 days after Simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty (SBTKA). In this study, an individualized nomogram was established and validated to predict the complications within 30 days after SBTKA. METHODS: The general data of 861 patients (training set) who received SBTKA in The Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between January 1, 2012 and March 31, 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. All patients were divided into complication group (n = 96) and non-complication group (n = 765) according to the incidence of complications within 30 years after SBTKA. Independent risk factors for postoperative SBTKA complications were identified and screened by binary logistic regression analyses, and then a nomogram prediction model was constructed using R software. The area under curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were selected to evaluate the line-chart. Meanwhile, 396 patients receiving SBTKA in the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria (test set) were selected to verify the nomogram. RESULTS: Five independent predictors were identified by binary logistic regression analyses and a nomogram was established. The AUC of this nomogram curve is 0.851 (95% CI: 0.819–0.883) and 0.818 (95% CI: 0.735–0.900) in the training and testing sets, respectively. In the training set and test set, calibration curves show that nomogram prediction results are in good agreement with actual observation results, and DCA shows that nomogram prediction results have good clinical application value. CONCLUSION: Older age, lower preoperative hemoglobin level, higher preoperative blood urea nitrogen (BUN) level, longer operation time, ASA grade ≥ III are independent predictors of SBTKA complications within 30 days after surgery. A nomogram containing these five predictors can accurately predict the risk of complications within 30 days after SBTKA. Frontiers Media S.A. 2022-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9515415/ /pubmed/36189401 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.980477 Text en © 2022 Xu, Zhang, Ren, Wang, Zhang, Zhao and Yu. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Surgery Xu, Kuishuai Zhang, Liang Ren, Zhongkai Wang, Tianrui Zhang, Yingze Zhao, Xia Yu, Tengbo Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers |
title | Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers |
title_full | Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers |
title_fullStr | Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers |
title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers |
title_short | Development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: A retrospective study from two centers |
title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram to predict complications in patients undergoing simultaneous bilateral total knee arthroplasty: a retrospective study from two centers |
topic | Surgery |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9515415/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36189401 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fsurg.2022.980477 |
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