Scales and Historical Evolution: Methods to Reveal the Relationships between Ecosystem Service Bundles and Socio-Ecological Drivers—A Case Study of Dalian City, China

Ecosystem service (ES) bundles can be defined as the temporal and spatial co-occurrence of ESs. ES bundles are jointly driven by socio-ecological factors and form at different scales. However, in recent research, a few studies have analyzed the dynamic evolution and driving mechanisms of ES bundles at different scales. Therefore, this study explored the spatial patterns of six ESs supplied in Dalian (China) from 2005 to 2015 at three spatial scales, determining the distribution and evolution patterns of ES bundles and their responses to socio-ecological driving factors. Our results are as follows: (1) We identified four ES bundles representing ecological conservation, water conservation, ecological depletion, and food supply. The developmental trajectory of each ES bundle could be attributed to the combined effects of environmental conditions and urban expansion. In particular, the water conservation bundle and food supply bundle were changed to the ecological depletion bundle. Given the ongoing urbanization, the conflict between ESs has intensified. (2) The impact of socio-ecological driving factors on ES bundles vary with scale. At three spatial scales, the digital elevation model (DEM) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) had a great impact on ES bundles. Urbanization indicators also strongly explain the spatial distribution of ES bundles at the county and grid scales. The interaction factor detector shows that there is no combination of mutual weakening, indicating that the formation of ES bundles is driven by multiple factors in Dalian. Overall, this study used a more holistic approach to manage the ecosystem by studying the temporal-spatial dynamics of the multiple ESs.