Predicting success of intrauterine insemination using a clinically based scoring system

PURPOSE: To develop a predictive score for the success of intrauterine insemination (IUI) based on clinical parameters. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study evaluating the homologous IUI cycles performed at a single university-based reproductive medical center between 2009 and 2017. The primary outcome measure was pregnancy, defined as positive serum human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) 12–14 days after IUI. Predictive factors for pregnancy after IUI were identified, and a predictive score was developed using a multivariable continuation ratio model. RESULTS: Overall, 1437 IUI cycles in 758 couples were evaluated. We found a per cycle pregnancy rate of 10.9% and a cumulative pregnancy rate of 19.4%. In a multivariable analysis, the probability of pregnancy was negatively associated with female age ≥ 35 years (OR 0.63, 95% CI 0.41–0.97, p = 0.034), endometriosis, unilateral tubal factor, or anatomical alteration (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.33–0.89, p = 0.016), anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) < 1 ng/ml (OR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29–0.87, p = 0.014), and total progressive motile sperm count (TPMSC) < 5 mil (OR 0.47, 95% CI 0.19–0.72, p = 0.004). We developed a predictive clinical score ranging from 0 to 5. Following 3 cycles, couples in our cohort with a score of 5 had a cumulative probability of achieving pregnancy of nearly 45%. In contrast, couples with a score of 0 had a cumulative probability of only 5%. CONCLUSION: IUI success rates vary widely depending on couples’ characteristics. A simple to use score could be used to estimate a couple’s chance of achieving pregnancy via IUI, facilitating individualized counseling and decision-making.