Mathematical model of insulin kinetics accounting for the amino acids effect during a mixed meal tolerance test

Amino acids (AAs) are well known to be involved in the regulation of glucose metabolism and, in particular, of insulin secretion. However, the effects of different AAs on insulin release and kinetics have not been completely elucidated. The aim of this study was to propose a mathematical model that includes the effect of AAs on insulin kinetics during a mixed meal tolerance test. To this aim, five different models were proposed and compared. Validation was performed using average data, derived from the scientific literature, regarding subjects with normal glucose tolerance (CNT) and with type 2 diabetes (T2D). From the average data of the CNT and T2D people, data for two virtual populations (100 for each group) were generated for further model validation. Among the five proposed models, a simple model including one first-order differential equation showed the best results in terms of model performance (best compromise between model structure parsimony, estimated parameters plausibility, and data fit accuracy). With regard to the contribution of AAs to insulin appearance/disappearance (k(AA) model parameter), model analysis of the average data from the literature yielded 0.0247 (confidence interval, CI: 0.0168 – 0.0325) and -0.0048 (CI: -0.0281 – 0.0185) μU·ml(-1)/(μmol·l(-1)·min), for CNT and T2D, respectively. This suggests a positive effect of AAs on insulin secretion in CNT, and negligible effect in T2D. In conclusion, a simple model, including single first-order differential equation, may help to describe the possible AAs effects on insulin kinetics during a physiological metabolic test, and provide parameters that can be assessed in the single individuals.