Herd level economic comparison between the shape of the lactation curve and 305 d milk production

Herd milk production performance is generally evaluated using the herd's average 305-day milk production (HM305). Economic comparisons between herds are also often made using HM305. Comparing herds is thus based on summarized milk production, and not on the form of the lactation curves of the cows within the herd. Cow lactation curve characteristics can be aggregated on a calendar year basis to herd lactation curve characteristics (HLCC) (herd magnitude, herd time to peak yield and herd persistency). Thus far, no literature has evaluated whether the shape of the lactation curve (described by HLCC) is better able to explain the economic variation of herds than summarized milk production such as HM305 does. This study aims to determine whether HM305 or HLCC is better able to explain the variation in economic performance between herds. To do so, we evaluated 8 years of Dutch longitudinal data on milk production and the financial accounts of 1,664 herds. Cow lactation curve characteristics were calculated through lactation curve modeling and aggregated to HLCC on a calendar year basis for two parity groups (primiparous cows and multiparous cows). Using income over feed cost per cow (IOFC-cow) or per 100 kg milk (IOFC-milk) as the dependent variable separately, we developed four linear mixed models. Two models were used to analyse the association between herd economic performance and HLCC; the other two models were used to analyse the association between herd economic performance and HM305. A Cox test and J test were used to compare two non-nested models to investigate whether HM305 or HLCC better explain IOFC. The average IOFC-cow was €2,305 (SD = 408) per year, while the average IOFC-milk was €32.1 (SD = 4.6). Results showed that HLCC and HM305 explain the same amount of variance of IOFC-cow or IOFC-milk. IOFC-cow was associated with HM305 and HLCC (except herd time to peak yield for primiparous cows). Herd magnitude was most strongly associated with IOFC-cow, followed by herd persistency and herd time to peak yield of multiparous cows. IOFC-milk was not associated with HM305 or HLCC (except for a weak negative association with herd persistency for primiparous cows). IOFC-cow and IOFC-milk were driven most by time effects. In conclusion, HLCC and HM305 explain the same amount of variance in IOFC-cow or IOFC-milk. HLCC is more computationally expensive, while HM305 is more readily available.