Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico

In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Pois...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: López Vázquez, Pablo Carlos, Sánchez González, Gilberto, Martínez Ortega, Jorge, Arroyo Duarte, Renato Salomón
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Research Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9521938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36173956
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275216
Descripción
Sumario:In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.

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