Simulating the spatiotemporal variations of oasis rural settlements in the upper reaches of rivers of arid regions in Xinjiang, China

Rural settlements in oasis are primary habitations, and their changes are related to natural environment and anthropogenic activities. The spatiotemporal variations of rural settlements in an oasis are significant in arid regions. In this study, Qipan Township (QPT) and Yamansu Township (YMST) were chosen as a case study and validation case, respectively. Datasets, including Landsat images in 2002, 2010, and 2018, were collected. The cellular automata (CA)-agent-based model (ABM) and patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model were used to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamic variations of rural settlement and other land use types in the oasis in this study. Natural environmental, socioeconomic conditions, and human decision-making are the three driving factors that were used in the model. Human decision-making involves the actions of two types of agents: authority agent and resident agent. On the basis of land use data of 2002 and 2010, the rural settlement and other land use in 2018 were predicted using the CA-MAS and PLUS models. The following results were obtained: First, human decision-making behaviors were the leading factor in the changes of rural settlements in the CA-ABM model. Second, CA based on multiple random seed (CARS) of PLUS could better simulate the spatiotemporal variations of QPT rural settlements than CA-ABM and linear regression of PLUS. Similarly, CARS of PLUS also simulated the spatiotemporal evolution of rural settlements in YMST with high accuracy. Third, the areas of croplands, roads, and residential lands in QPT will expand to 20.7, 5.7, and 4.6 km(2), respectively, in 2026, but the unused land will shrink, as predicted by CARS of PLUS. This study provides a scientific basis for the environmental protection of rural settlements in the oasis and sustainable settlement planning in arid regions.