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A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market

Predicting the export price of shrimp is important for Vietnam’s fisheries. It not only promotes product quality but also helps policy makers determine strategies to develop the national shrimp industry. Competition in global markets is considered to be an important factor, one that significantly in...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Khiem, Nguyen Minh, Takahashi, Yuki, Yasuma, Hiroki, Dong, Khuu Thi Phuong, Hai, Tran Ngoc, Kimura, Nobuo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9522284/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36174038
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275290
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author Khiem, Nguyen Minh
Takahashi, Yuki
Yasuma, Hiroki
Dong, Khuu Thi Phuong
Hai, Tran Ngoc
Kimura, Nobuo
author_facet Khiem, Nguyen Minh
Takahashi, Yuki
Yasuma, Hiroki
Dong, Khuu Thi Phuong
Hai, Tran Ngoc
Kimura, Nobuo
author_sort Khiem, Nguyen Minh
collection PubMed
description Predicting the export price of shrimp is important for Vietnam’s fisheries. It not only promotes product quality but also helps policy makers determine strategies to develop the national shrimp industry. Competition in global markets is considered to be an important factor, one that significantly influences price. In this study, we predicted trends in the export price of Vietnamese shrimp based on competitive information from six leading exporters (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Ecuador, and Chile) who, alongside Vietnam, also export shrimp to the US. The prediction was based on a dataset collected from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) (May-1995 to May-2019) that included price, required farming certificates, and disease outbreak data. A super learner technique, which combined 10 single algorithms, was used to make predictions in selected base periods (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). It was found that the super learner obtained results in all base periods that were more accurate and stable than any candidate algorithms. The impacts of variables in the predictive model were interpreted by a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to determine their influence on the price of Vietnamese exports. The price of Indian, Thai, and Chinese exports highlighted the advantages of being a World Trade Organization member and the disadvantages of the prevalence of shrimp disease in Vietnam, which has had a significant impact on the Vietnamese shrimp export price.
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spelling pubmed-95222842022-09-30 A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market Khiem, Nguyen Minh Takahashi, Yuki Yasuma, Hiroki Dong, Khuu Thi Phuong Hai, Tran Ngoc Kimura, Nobuo PLoS One Research Article Predicting the export price of shrimp is important for Vietnam’s fisheries. It not only promotes product quality but also helps policy makers determine strategies to develop the national shrimp industry. Competition in global markets is considered to be an important factor, one that significantly influences price. In this study, we predicted trends in the export price of Vietnamese shrimp based on competitive information from six leading exporters (China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Ecuador, and Chile) who, alongside Vietnam, also export shrimp to the US. The prediction was based on a dataset collected from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) (May-1995 to May-2019) that included price, required farming certificates, and disease outbreak data. A super learner technique, which combined 10 single algorithms, was used to make predictions in selected base periods (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). It was found that the super learner obtained results in all base periods that were more accurate and stable than any candidate algorithms. The impacts of variables in the predictive model were interpreted by a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis to determine their influence on the price of Vietnamese exports. The price of Indian, Thai, and Chinese exports highlighted the advantages of being a World Trade Organization member and the disadvantages of the prevalence of shrimp disease in Vietnam, which has had a significant impact on the Vietnamese shrimp export price. Public Library of Science 2022-09-29 /pmc/articles/PMC9522284/ /pubmed/36174038 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275290 Text en © 2022 Khiem et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Khiem, Nguyen Minh
Takahashi, Yuki
Yasuma, Hiroki
Dong, Khuu Thi Phuong
Hai, Tran Ngoc
Kimura, Nobuo
A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market
title A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market
title_full A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market
title_fullStr A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market
title_full_unstemmed A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market
title_short A novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: The case of the export of Vietnamese shrimp to the US market
title_sort novel machine learning approach to predict the export price of seafood products based on competitive information: the case of the export of vietnamese shrimp to the us market
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9522284/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36174038
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0275290
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