Speed up discharge planning at the acute stroke unit: A development and external validation study for the early prediction of discharge home

BACKGROUND: To reduce healthcare costs, it has become increasingly important to shorten the length of stay in acute stroke units. The goal of this study was to develop and externally validate a decision tree model applicable < 48 h poststroke for discharge home from an acute stroke unit with a short length of stay, and to assess the inappropriate home discharge rate. METHODS: A prospective study including two samples of stroke patients admitted to an acute stroke unit. The outcome was discharge home (yes/no). A classification and regression tree analysis was performed in Sample 1. The model's performance was tested in Sample 2. RESULTS: In total, 953 patients were included. The final decision tree included the patients' activities of daily living (ADL) performance <48 h poststroke, including motor function, cognition, and communication, and had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.76, 0.91). External validation resulted in an AUC of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.72, 0.77). None of the patients discharged home were re-admitted < 2 months after discharge to a hospital or admitted to a rehabilitation center for symptoms that had needed inpatient neurorehabilitation. CONCLUSIONS: The developed decision tree shows acceptable external validity in predicting discharge home in a heterogeneous sample of stroke patients, only based on the patient's actual ADL performance <48 h poststroke. Importantly, discharge was safe, i.e., no re-hospitalization was registered. The tree's application to speed up discharge planning should now be further evaluated.