Potential progression biomarkers of diabetic kidney disease determined using comprehensive machine learning analysis of non-targeted metabolomics

Diabetic kidney disease is the main cause of end-stage renal disease worldwide. The prediction of the clinical course of patients with diabetic kidney disease remains difficult, despite the identification of potential biomarkers; therefore, novel biomarkers are needed to predict the progression of the disease. We conducted non-targeted metabolomics using plasma and urine of patients with diabetic kidney disease whose estimated glomerular filtration rate was between 30 and 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2). We analyzed how the estimated glomerular filtration rate changed over time (up to 30 months) to detect rapid decliners of kidney function. Conventional logistic analysis suggested that only one metabolite, urinary 1-methylpyridin-1-ium (NMP), was a promising biomarker. We then applied a deep learning method to identify potential biomarkers and physiological parameters to predict the progression of diabetic kidney disease in an explainable manner. We narrowed down 3388 variables to 50 using the deep learning method and conducted two regression models, piecewise linear and handcrafted linear regression, both of which examined the utility of biomarker combinations. Our analysis, based on the deep learning method, identified systolic blood pressure and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio, six identified metabolites, and three unidentified metabolites including urinary NMP, as potential biomarkers. This research suggests that the machine learning method can detect potential biomarkers that could otherwise escape identification using the conventional statistical method.