The evolutionary characteristics and influencing factors of total carbon productivity: evidence from China

In order to systematically understand the evolution of total factor carbon productivity and explore its influence mechanism, based on panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2019, the slacks-based measure of directional distance functions model and the Luenberger index are used to estimate the evolution of total factor carbon productivity, and the SYS-GMM model is constructed to explore the drivers of total factor carbon productivity and its influence effect. The results show that from 2005 to 2019, the overall level of total factor carbon productivity was low, but its growth index and decomposition term both showed an increasing trend; the development of total factor carbon productivity has regional differences. Only the eastern, northern, and middle Yellow River economic regions experience positive growth in total factor carbon production. The downward trend of total factor carbon productivity is most significant in the northwest and southwest economic regions, with − 2.577% and − 1.463%, respectively; improvements in scale technology are the main reasons for improving total factor carbon productivity across time and regions; economic growth and environmental regulations contribute to total factor carbon productivity at 1% significance level, and industrial structure has a negative impact. Foreign direct investment inhibits total factor carbon productivity, but the effect is not significant. Based on these findings, this paper provides an effective reference for achieving the goal of low-carbon sustainable development and improving total factor carbon productivity.