Predictive nomogram of cage nonunion after anterior cervical discectomy and fusion: A retrospective study in a spine surgery center

The cage nonunion may cause serious consequences, including recurrent pain, radiculopathy, and kyphotic deformity. The risk factors for nonunion following anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) are controversial. The aim of the study is to investigate the risk factors for nonunion in cervical spondylotic cases after ACDF. We enrolled 58 and 692 cases in the nonunion and union group respectively and followed up the cases at least 6 months. Patient demographic information, surgical details, cervical sagittal parameters, and the serum vitamin D level were collected. A logistic regression was performed to determine the independent predictors for nonunion, which were used for establishing a nomogram. In order to estimate the reliability and the net benefit of nomogram, we applied a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves and plotted decision curves. Using the multivariate logistic regression, we found that age (odds ratio [OR] = 1.16, P < .001), smoking (OR = 3.41, P = .001), angle of C2 to C7 (OR = 1.53, P < .001), number of operated levels (2 levels, OR = 0.42, P = .04; 3 levels, OR = 1.32, P = .54), and serum vitamin D (OR = 0.81, P < .001) were all significant predictors of nonunion (Table 3). The area under the curve of the model training cohort and validation cohort was 0.89 and 0.87, respectively. The calibration curves showed that the predicted outcome fitted well to the observed outcome in the training cohort (P = .102,) and validation cohort (P = .125). The decision curves showed the nomogram had more benefits than the All or None scheme if the threshold probability is >10% and <100% in training cohort and validation cohort. We found that age, smoking, angle of C2 to C7, number of operated levels, and serum vitamin D were all significant predictors of nonunion.