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Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (...

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Autores principales: Zhou, Sha, Williams, A. Park, Lintner, Benjamin R., Findell, Kirsten L., Keenan, Trevor F., Zhang, Yao, Gentine, Pierre
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9525715/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36180427
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9
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author Zhou, Sha
Williams, A. Park
Lintner, Benjamin R.
Findell, Kirsten L.
Keenan, Trevor F.
Zhang, Yao
Gentine, Pierre
author_facet Zhou, Sha
Williams, A. Park
Lintner, Benjamin R.
Findell, Kirsten L.
Keenan, Trevor F.
Zhang, Yao
Gentine, Pierre
author_sort Zhou, Sha
collection PubMed
description Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.
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spelling pubmed-95257152022-10-02 Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks Zhou, Sha Williams, A. Park Lintner, Benjamin R. Findell, Kirsten L. Keenan, Trevor F. Zhang, Yao Gentine, Pierre Nat Commun Article Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-09-30 /pmc/articles/PMC9525715/ /pubmed/36180427 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Zhou, Sha
Williams, A. Park
Lintner, Benjamin R.
Findell, Kirsten L.
Keenan, Trevor F.
Zhang, Yao
Gentine, Pierre
Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
title Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
title_full Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
title_fullStr Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
title_full_unstemmed Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
title_short Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
title_sort diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9525715/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36180427
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33473-9
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