Changes in the global burden of untreated dental caries from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the burden of untreated dental caries in 204 countries and territories over 30 years. METHODS: Data of untreated dental caries from 1990 to 2019, including the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability, were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Estimated annual percentage changes were calculated to assess the changes in the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability rates. RESULTS: Globally, in 2019, there were 3.09 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 2.76–3.39 billion) new cases of untreated dental caries in permanent teeth (48.00% increase), 2.03 billion (1.77–2.33) prevalent cases (46.07% increase), and 2.00 million (0.93–3.88) YLDs (45.64% increase), all since 1990. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of untreated dental caries in permanent teeth showed an upward trend (estimated annual percentage changes [EAPC] = 0.01), but age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) (EAPC = −0.13) and age-standardized YLD rate (ASYR) (EAPC = −0.13) decreased. There were 1.15 billion (0.79–1.52) new cases of untreated dental caries in deciduous teeth (11.74% increase), 0.52 billion (0.41–0.63) prevalent cases (5.89% increase), and 0.20 million (0.09–0.43) YLDs (6.03% increase), all since 1990. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of untreated dental caries in permanent teeth showed a stable trend (EAPC = 0), but the ASPR (EAPC = −0.15) and ASYR (EAPC = −0.14) decreased. The incidence of untreated dental caries peaked at the ages of 5–9 and 20–24 years, and the prevalence and years lived with disability at 1–4, 20–24, and 60–64 years. CONCLUSION: Untreated dental caries remains a major global public health challenge, but demographic, sex, and regional differences in trends remain. Proactive intervention strategies, at both administrative and academic levels, based on dynamic changes, are needed.