Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND: Countries that aimed for eliminating the cases of COVID-19 with test-trace-isolate policy are found to have lower infections, deaths, and better economic performance, compared with those that opted for other mitigation strategies. However, the continuous evolution of new strains has raised the question of whether COVID-19 eradication is still possible given the limited public health response capacity and fatigue of the epidemic. We aim to investigate the mechanism of the Zero-COVID policy on outbreak containment, and to explore the possibility of eradication of Omicron transmission using the citywide test-trace-isolate (CTTI) strategy. METHODS: We develop a compartmental model incorporating the CTTI Zero-COVID policy to understand how it contributes to the SARS-CoV-2 elimination. We employ our model to mimic the Delta outbreak in Fujian Province, China, from September 10 to October 9, 2021, and the Omicron outbreak in Jilin Province, China for the period from March 1 to April 1, 2022. Projections and sensitivity analyses were conducted using dynamical system and Latin Hypercube Sampling/ Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC). RESULTS: Calibration results of the model estimate the Fujian Delta outbreak can end in 30 (95% confidence interval CI: 28–33) days, after 10 (95% CI: 9–11) rounds of citywide testing. The emerging Jilin Omicron outbreak may achieve zero COVID cases in 50 (95% CI: 41–57) days if supported with sufficient public health resources and population compliance, which shows the effectiveness of the CTTI Zero-COVID policy. CONCLUSIONS: The CTTI policy shows the capacity for the eradication of the Delta outbreaks and also the Omicron outbreaks. Nonetheless, the implementation of radical CTTI is challenging, which requires routine monitoring for early detection, adequate testing capacity, efficient contact tracing, and high isolation compliance, which constrain its benefits in regions with limited resources. Moreover, these challenges become even more acute in the face of more contagious variants with a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Hence, in regions where CTTI is not possible, personal protection, public health control measures, and vaccination are indispensable for mitigating and exiting the COVID-19 pandemic. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-01030-7.