Development and validation of an MRI-based radiomic model for predicting overall survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients with local residual tumors after intensity-modulated radiotherapy

BACKGROUND: To investigate the potential value of the pretreatment MRI-based radiomic model in predicting the overall survival (OS) of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients with local residual tumors after intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). METHODS: A total of 218 consecutive nonmetastatic NPC patients with local residual tumors after IMRT [training cohort (n = 173) and validation cohort (n = 45)] were retrospectively included in this study. Clinical and MRI data were obtained. Univariate Cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to select the radiomic features from pretreatment MRI. The clinical, radiomic, and combined models for predicting OS were constructed. The models’ performances were evaluated using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The C-index of the radiomic model was higher than that of the clinical model, with the C-index of 0.788 (95% CI 0.724–0.852) versus 0.672 (95% CI 0.599–0.745) in the training cohort and 0.753 (95% CI 0.604–0.902) versus 0.634 (95% CI 0.593–0.675) in the validation cohort. Calibration curves showed good agreement between the radiomic model-predicted probability of 2- and 3-year OS and the actual observed probability in the training and validation groups. Decision curve analysis showed that the radiomic model had higher clinical usefulness than the clinical model. The discrimination of the combined model improved significantly in the training cohort (P < 0.01) but not in the validation cohort, with the C-index of 0.834 and 0.734, respectively. The radiomic model divided patients into high- and low-risk groups with a significant difference in OS in both the training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Pretreatment MRI-based radiomic model may improve OS prediction in NPC patients with local residual tumors after IMRT and may assist in clinical decision-making. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-022-00902-6.