The reciprocal relationship between mathematics self-efficacy and mathematics performance in US high school students: Instrumental variables estimates and gender differences

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the reciprocal relationship between high school students’ academic self-efficacy and achievement in mathematics using US data from the HSLS:2009 and first follow-up longitudinal surveys, while accounting for biases in effect estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. METHODS: Instrumental Variables (IV) regressions were estimated, to derive causal effect estimates of earlier math self-efficacy on later math achievement and vice versa. Particular attention was paid to testing the validity of instruments used. Models were estimated separately by gender, to uncover gender differences in effects. RESULTS: Evidence of robust reciprocal effects between self-efficacy and achievement for male students is presented, with the dominant effect from earlier achievement to later self-efficacy. For girls, evidence of such effects is weak. Generally, IV estimates are higher than OLS estimates for males, but not for females. As opposed to earlier correlational studies which did not find significant gender differences despite theoretical expectations for their existence, the findings support higher effects for male students.