Prospective Dynamic and Probabilistic Material Flow Analysis of Graphene-Based Materials in Europe from 2004 to 2030

[Image: see text] As industrial demand for graphene-based materials (GBMs) grows, more attention falls on potential environmental risks. The present article describes a first assessment of the environmental releases of GBMs using dynamic probabilistic material flow analysis. The model considered all current or expected uses of GBMs from 2004 to 2030, during which time there have already been significant changes in how the graphene mass produced is distributed to different product categories. Although the volume of GBM production is expected to grow exponentially in the coming years, outflow from the consumption of products containing GBMs shows only a slightly positive trend due to their long lifetimes and the large in-use stock of some applications (e.g., GBM composites used in wind turbine blades). From consumption and end-of-life phase GBM mass flows in 2030, estimates suggest that more than 50% will be incinerated and oxidized in waste plants, 16% will be landfilled, 12% will be exported out of Europe, and 1.4% of the annual production will flow to the environment. Predicted release concentrations for 2030 are 1.4 ng/L in surface water and 20 μg/kg in sludge-treated soil. This study’s results could be used for prospective environmental risk assessments and as input for environmental fate models.