Optimized diagnosis-based comorbidity measures for all-cause mortality prediction in a national population-based ICU population

BACKGROUND: We aimed to optimize prediction of long-term all-cause mortality of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, using quantitative register-based comorbidity information assessed from hospital discharge diagnoses prior to intensive care treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Adult ICU admissions during 2006 to 2012 in the Swedish intensive care register were followed for at least 4 years. The performance of quantitative comorbidity measures based on the 5-year history of number of hospital admissions, length of stay, and time since latest admission in 36 comorbidity categories was compared in time-to-event analyses with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS3). RESULTS: During a 7-year period, there were 230,056 ICU admissions and 62,225 deaths among 188,965 unique individuals. The time interval from the most recent hospital stays and total length of stay within each comorbidity category optimized mortality prediction and provided clear separation of risk categories also within strata of age and CCI, with hazard ratios (HRs) comparing lowest to highest quartile ranging from 1.17 (95% CI: 0.52–2.64) to 6.41 (95% CI: 5.19–7.92). Risk separation was also observed within SAPS deciles with HR ranging from 1.07 (95% CI: 0.83–1.38) to 3.58 (95% CI: 2.12–6.03). CONCLUSION: Baseline comorbidity measures that included the time interval from the most recent hospital stay in 36 different comorbidity categories substantially improved long-term mortality prediction after ICU admission compared to the Charlson index and the SAPS score. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04109001, date of registration 2019-09-26 retrospectively. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-022-04172-0.