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Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?

Eradication of COVID‐19 is out of reach. Are we close to a “new normal” in which people can leave behind restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a det...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Rahmandad, Hazhir, Sterman, John
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9538382/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36246868
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1715
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author Rahmandad, Hazhir
Sterman, John
author_facet Rahmandad, Hazhir
Sterman, John
author_sort Rahmandad, Hazhir
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description Eradication of COVID‐19 is out of reach. Are we close to a “new normal” in which people can leave behind restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID‐19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID‐19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID‐19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.
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spelling pubmed-95383822022-10-11 Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach? Rahmandad, Hazhir Sterman, John Syst Dyn Rev Fast Track Eradication of COVID‐19 is out of reach. Are we close to a “new normal” in which people can leave behind restrictive non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID‐19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID‐19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID‐19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of Omicron, combined with the decay of immunity, leads to repeated episodes of reinfections, hospitalizations, and deaths, complicating the emergence of a new normal in many nations. © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society. John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 2022-08-24 /pmc/articles/PMC9538382/ /pubmed/36246868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1715 Text en © 2022 The Authors. System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
spellingShingle Fast Track
Rahmandad, Hazhir
Sterman, John
Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
title Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
title_full Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
title_fullStr Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
title_full_unstemmed Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
title_short Quantifying the COVID‐19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?
title_sort quantifying the covid‐19 endgame: is a new normal within reach?
topic Fast Track
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9538382/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36246868
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sdr.1715
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