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Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2

To assess the combined role of anti‐viral monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and vaccines in reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) transmission and mortality in the United States, an agent‐based model was developed that accounted for social contacts, movement/travel, diseas...

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Autores principales: Kamal, Mohamed A., Kuznik, Andreas, Qi, Luyuan, Więcek, Witold, Hussein, Mohamed, Hassan, Hazem E., Patel, Kashyap, Obadia, Thomas, Toroghi, Masood Khaksar, Conrado, Daniela J., Al‐Huniti, Nidal, Casciano, Roman, O'Brien, Meagan P., Barnabas, Ruanne V., Cohen, Myron S., Smith, Patrick F.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9538838/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35984050
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cpt.2728
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author Kamal, Mohamed A.
Kuznik, Andreas
Qi, Luyuan
Więcek, Witold
Hussein, Mohamed
Hassan, Hazem E.
Patel, Kashyap
Obadia, Thomas
Toroghi, Masood Khaksar
Conrado, Daniela J.
Al‐Huniti, Nidal
Casciano, Roman
O'Brien, Meagan P.
Barnabas, Ruanne V.
Cohen, Myron S.
Smith, Patrick F.
author_facet Kamal, Mohamed A.
Kuznik, Andreas
Qi, Luyuan
Więcek, Witold
Hussein, Mohamed
Hassan, Hazem E.
Patel, Kashyap
Obadia, Thomas
Toroghi, Masood Khaksar
Conrado, Daniela J.
Al‐Huniti, Nidal
Casciano, Roman
O'Brien, Meagan P.
Barnabas, Ruanne V.
Cohen, Myron S.
Smith, Patrick F.
author_sort Kamal, Mohamed A.
collection PubMed
description To assess the combined role of anti‐viral monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and vaccines in reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) transmission and mortality in the United States, an agent‐based model was developed that accounted for social contacts, movement/travel, disease progression, and viral shedding. The model was calibrated to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) mortality between October 2020 and April 2021 (aggressive pandemic phase), and projected an extended outlook to estimate mortality during a less aggressive phase (April–August 2021). Simulated scenarios evaluated mAbs for averting infections and deaths in addition to vaccines and aggregated non‐pharmaceutical interventions. Scenarios included mAbs as a treatment of COVID‐19 and for passive immunity for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) during a period when variants were susceptible to the mAbs. Rapid diagnostic testing paired with mAbs was evaluated as an early treatment‐as‐prevention strategy. Sensitivity analyses included increasing mAb supply and vaccine rollout. Allocation of mAbs for use only as PEP averted up to 14% more infections than vaccine alone, and targeting individuals ≥ 65 years averted up to 37% more deaths. Rapid testing for earlier diagnosis and mAb use amplified these benefits. Doubling the mAb supply further reduced infections and mortality. mAbs provided benefits even as proportion of the immunized population increased. Model projections estimated that ~ 42% of expected deaths between April and August 2021 could be averted. Assuming sensitivity to mAbs, their use as early treatment and PEP in addition to vaccines would substantially reduce SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission and mortality even as vaccination increases and mortality decreases. These results provide a template for informing public health policy for future pandemic preparedness.
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spelling pubmed-95388382022-10-11 Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2 Kamal, Mohamed A. Kuznik, Andreas Qi, Luyuan Więcek, Witold Hussein, Mohamed Hassan, Hazem E. Patel, Kashyap Obadia, Thomas Toroghi, Masood Khaksar Conrado, Daniela J. Al‐Huniti, Nidal Casciano, Roman O'Brien, Meagan P. Barnabas, Ruanne V. Cohen, Myron S. Smith, Patrick F. Clin Pharmacol Ther Research To assess the combined role of anti‐viral monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) and vaccines in reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) transmission and mortality in the United States, an agent‐based model was developed that accounted for social contacts, movement/travel, disease progression, and viral shedding. The model was calibrated to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) mortality between October 2020 and April 2021 (aggressive pandemic phase), and projected an extended outlook to estimate mortality during a less aggressive phase (April–August 2021). Simulated scenarios evaluated mAbs for averting infections and deaths in addition to vaccines and aggregated non‐pharmaceutical interventions. Scenarios included mAbs as a treatment of COVID‐19 and for passive immunity for postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) during a period when variants were susceptible to the mAbs. Rapid diagnostic testing paired with mAbs was evaluated as an early treatment‐as‐prevention strategy. Sensitivity analyses included increasing mAb supply and vaccine rollout. Allocation of mAbs for use only as PEP averted up to 14% more infections than vaccine alone, and targeting individuals ≥ 65 years averted up to 37% more deaths. Rapid testing for earlier diagnosis and mAb use amplified these benefits. Doubling the mAb supply further reduced infections and mortality. mAbs provided benefits even as proportion of the immunized population increased. Model projections estimated that ~ 42% of expected deaths between April and August 2021 could be averted. Assuming sensitivity to mAbs, their use as early treatment and PEP in addition to vaccines would substantially reduce SARS‐CoV‐2 transmission and mortality even as vaccination increases and mortality decreases. These results provide a template for informing public health policy for future pandemic preparedness. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-09-20 /pmc/articles/PMC9538838/ /pubmed/35984050 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cpt.2728 Text en © 2022 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
spellingShingle Research
Kamal, Mohamed A.
Kuznik, Andreas
Qi, Luyuan
Więcek, Witold
Hussein, Mohamed
Hassan, Hazem E.
Patel, Kashyap
Obadia, Thomas
Toroghi, Masood Khaksar
Conrado, Daniela J.
Al‐Huniti, Nidal
Casciano, Roman
O'Brien, Meagan P.
Barnabas, Ruanne V.
Cohen, Myron S.
Smith, Patrick F.
Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2
title Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2
title_full Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2
title_fullStr Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2
title_short Assessing the Combined Public Health Impact of Pharmaceutical Interventions on Pandemic Transmission and Mortality: An Example in SARS CoV‐2
title_sort assessing the combined public health impact of pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic transmission and mortality: an example in sars cov‐2
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9538838/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35984050
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/cpt.2728
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