A multi-institutional study of association of sonographic characteristics with cervical lymph node metastasis in unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma

OBJECTIVE: Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is the most common pathological type of thyroid carcinoma, and is prone to cervical lymph node metastases (CLNM). We aim to evaluate the association between sonographic characteristics of PTC and CLNM before the initial surgery. METHODS: Clinical information as well as ultrasonographic measurements and characteristics for 2376 patients from three hospitals were acquired in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate logistic analysis were performed to predict CLNM in unifocal PTC patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was created to evaluate diagnostic performance. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that gender, age, maximum tumor diameter and volume, cross-sectional and longitudinal aspect ratio, location, echogenicity, margin, and echogenic foci were independently associated with CLNM metastatic status (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic analysis showed that gender, age, maximum tumor diameter and volume, cross-sectional aspect ratio (CSAR), location, echogenicity, margin, and echogenic foci were independent correlative factors; CSAR showed a significant difference for PTC2 to predict CLNM. The area under the curve (AUC) of the maximum tumor diameter, tumor volume, margin, and echogenic foci was 0.70, 0.69, 0.65, and 0.70, respectively. The multiple-variable linear regression model was constructed with an AUC of 0.77, a specificity of 73.4%, and a sensitivity of 72.3%. Kruskal-Wallis analysis for positive subgroups, maximum tumor diameter and volume, cross-sectional and longitudinal aspect ratio, margin, and echogenic foci showed statistical significance (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age (< 55 years), male, larger tumor, and echogenic foci were high risk factors for CLNM in patients with unifocal PTC. CSAR had a more effective predictive value for CLNM in patients with larger thyroid tumors. A larger tumor with irregular and punctate echogenic foci was also more prone to the lateral neck, and both central and lateral neck metastasis.