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Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models

Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of cli...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Quilcaille, Y., Gudmundsson, L., Beusch, L., Hauser, M., Seneviratne, S. I.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9541273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36245896
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099012
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author Quilcaille, Y.
Gudmundsson, L.
Beusch, L.
Hauser, M.
Seneviratne, S. I.
author_facet Quilcaille, Y.
Gudmundsson, L.
Beusch, L.
Hauser, M.
Seneviratne, S. I.
author_sort Quilcaille, Y.
collection PubMed
description Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise between model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability. The general design and the good performance for annual maximum temperatures suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to other climate extremes.
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spelling pubmed-95412732022-10-14 Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models Quilcaille, Y. Gudmundsson, L. Beusch, L. Hauser, M. Seneviratne, S. I. Geophys Res Lett Research Letter Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far, the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received limited attention, even though extreme events are one of the most impactful aspects of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise between model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability. The general design and the good performance for annual maximum temperatures suggest that the proposed methodology can be applied to other climate extremes. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-08-30 2022-09-16 /pmc/articles/PMC9541273/ /pubmed/36245896 http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099012 Text en © 2022. The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Letter
Quilcaille, Y.
Gudmundsson, L.
Beusch, L.
Hauser, M.
Seneviratne, S. I.
Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models
title Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models
title_full Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models
title_fullStr Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models
title_full_unstemmed Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models
title_short Showcasing MESMER‐X: Spatially Resolved Emulation of Annual Maximum Temperatures of Earth System Models
title_sort showcasing mesmer‐x: spatially resolved emulation of annual maximum temperatures of earth system models
topic Research Letter
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9541273/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36245896
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099012
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