The value of NSE to predict ICU mortality in patients with septic shock: A prospective observational study

To investigate the predictive value of neuron-specific enolase (NSE) on intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in patients with septic shock. Seventy-five patients with septic shock hospitalized in the emergency intensive care unit (EICU) of Hebei General Hospital from March 2020 to September 2021 were included, and the patients’ baseline characteristics and laboratory findings were collected. NSE levels on the first and fourth days after admission were retrieved. NSE% [(NSEday1 – NSEday4)/NSEday1 × 100%] and δNSE (NSEday1 – NSEday4) were calculated. The outcome indicator was ICU mortality. The patients were divided into the survivors group (n = 57) and the nonsurvivors group (n = 18). Multivariate analysis was performed to assess the relationship between NSE and ICU mortality. The predictive value of NSE was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. There were no significant differences in age, gender, systolic blood pressure (SBP), heart rate (HR), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score (APACHE II score), source of infection, and comorbidities between the 2 groups (all P > .05). Interleukin-6 (IL-6), NSE (day1), and NSE (day4) were significantly higher in patients in the nonsurvivors group (all P < .05), and there were no statistical differences in other laboratory tests between the 2 groups (all P > .05). APACHE II score, IL-6, lactate (Lac), total bilirubin (TBil), NSE (day1), and NSE (day4) showed a weak positive correlation with ICU mortality in patients with septic shock (all P < .05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that APACHE II score (odds ratio [OR] = 1.166, 95% confidence interval [95% confidence interval [CI]] 1.005–1.352, P = .042), IL-6 (OR = 1.001, 95% CI 1.000–1.001, P = .003) and NSE (day4) (OR = 1.099, 95% CI 1.027–1.176, P = .006) were independently associated with the ICU mortality of sepsis shock patients. The area under the curve (AUCs) of APACHE II score, IL-6, NSE (day1), and NSE (day4) for predicting prognosis were 0.650, 0.694, 0.758 and 0.770, respectively (all P < .05). NSE(day4) displayed good sensitivity and specificity (Sn = 61.11%, Sp = 91.23%) for predicting ICU mortality with a cutoff value of 25.94 ug/L. High-level NSE (day4) is an independent predictor of ICU mortality in sepsis shock patients, which may become a good alternate option for evaluating sepsis severity. More extensive studies are needed in the future to demonstrate the prognosis value of NSE.