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Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem
The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine mea...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9542873/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899628 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16317 |
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author | Sunday, Jennifer M. Howard, Evan Siedlecki, Samantha Pilcher, Darren J. Deutsch, Curtis MacCready, Parker Newton, Jan Klinger, Terrie |
author_facet | Sunday, Jennifer M. Howard, Evan Siedlecki, Samantha Pilcher, Darren J. Deutsch, Curtis MacCready, Parker Newton, Jan Klinger, Terrie |
author_sort | Sunday, Jennifer M. |
collection | PubMed |
description | The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high‐resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO(2)) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism‐scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy‐forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness‐related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9542873 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-95428732022-10-14 Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem Sunday, Jennifer M. Howard, Evan Siedlecki, Samantha Pilcher, Darren J. Deutsch, Curtis MacCready, Parker Newton, Jan Klinger, Terrie Glob Chang Biol Research Articles The California Current Marine Ecosystem is a highly productive system that exhibits strong natural variability and vulnerability to anthropogenic climate trends. Relating projections of ocean change to biological sensitivities requires detailed synthesis of experimental results. Here, we combine measured biological sensitivities with high‐resolution climate projections of key variables (temperature, oxygen, and pCO(2)) to identify the direction, magnitude, and spatial distribution of organism‐scale vulnerabilities to multiple axes of projected ocean change. Among 12 selected species of cultural and economic importance, we find that all are sensitive to projected changes in ocean conditions through responses that affect individual performance or population processes. Response indices were largest in the northern region and inner shelf. While performance traits generally increased with projected changes, fitness traits generally decreased, indicating that concurrent stresses can lead to fitness loss. For two species, combining sensitivities to temperature and oxygen changes through the Metabolic Index shows how aerobic habitat availability could be compressed under future conditions. Our results suggest substantial and specific ecological susceptibility in the next 80 years, including potential regional loss of canopy‐forming kelp, changes in nearshore food webs caused by declining rates of survival among red urchins, Dungeness crab, and razor clams, and loss of aerobic habitat for anchovy and pink shrimp. We also highlight fillable gaps in knowledge, including specific physiological responses to stressors, variation in responses across life stages, and responses to multistressor combinations. These findings strengthen the case for filling information gaps with experiments focused on fitness‐related responses and those that can be used to parameterize integrative physiological models, and suggest that the CCME is susceptible to substantial changes to ecosystem structure and function within this century. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-07-28 2022-10 /pmc/articles/PMC9542873/ /pubmed/35899628 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16317 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. |
spellingShingle | Research Articles Sunday, Jennifer M. Howard, Evan Siedlecki, Samantha Pilcher, Darren J. Deutsch, Curtis MacCready, Parker Newton, Jan Klinger, Terrie Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem |
title | Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem |
title_full | Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem |
title_fullStr | Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem |
title_full_unstemmed | Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem |
title_short | Biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem |
title_sort | biological sensitivities to high‐resolution climate change projections in the california current marine ecosystem |
topic | Research Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9542873/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35899628 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16317 |
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