Comparison of the efficacy of periodontal prognostic systems in predicting tooth loss

AIM: The aim of this analysis was to assess how different tooth‐prognosis systems could predict tooth loss in a cohort of periodontitis patients followed up prospectively during supportive periodontal care (SPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical and radiographic data of 97 patients undergoing regular SPC for 5 years were used to assign tooth prognosis using four different systems (McGuire & Nunn, 1996; Kwok & Caton, 2007; Graetz et al., 2011; Nibali et al., 2017). Three independent examiners assigned tooth prognosis using all four systems, following a calibration exercise. The association between prognostic categories and tooth loss was tested for each prognostic system separately and across prognostic systems. RESULTS: All four systems showed good reproducibility and could identify teeth at higher risk of being lost during 5 years of SPC; the risk of tooth loss increased with the worsening of tooth‐prognosis category (p < .0001). Although specificity and negative predictive values were good, low sensitivity and positive predictive values were detected for all systems. CONCLUSIONS: Previously published periodontal prognostic systems exhibited good reproducibility and predictive ability for tooth retention. However, low sensitivity was detected, with several teeth in the worst prognosis category being retained at 5 years. Some modifications in the number of categories and their definitions are suggested.