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Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions

Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain‐specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climat...

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Autores principales: Brambilla, Mattia, Rubolini, Diego, Appukuttan, Ojan, Calvi, Gianpiero, Karger, Dirk Nikolaus, Kmecl, Primož, Mihelič, Tomaž, Sattler, Thomas, Seaman, Benjamin, Teufelbauer, Norbert, Wahl, Johannes, Celada, Claudio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9546033/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35441422
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187
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author Brambilla, Mattia
Rubolini, Diego
Appukuttan, Ojan
Calvi, Gianpiero
Karger, Dirk Nikolaus
Kmecl, Primož
Mihelič, Tomaž
Sattler, Thomas
Seaman, Benjamin
Teufelbauer, Norbert
Wahl, Johannes
Celada, Claudio
author_facet Brambilla, Mattia
Rubolini, Diego
Appukuttan, Ojan
Calvi, Gianpiero
Karger, Dirk Nikolaus
Kmecl, Primož
Mihelič, Tomaž
Sattler, Thomas
Seaman, Benjamin
Teufelbauer, Norbert
Wahl, Johannes
Celada, Claudio
author_sort Brambilla, Mattia
collection PubMed
description Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain‐specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high‐elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041–2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in‐situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex‐situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high‐resolution occurrence dataset (2901–12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%–59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km(2) of the Alpine region as in‐situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%–66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high‐elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species.
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spelling pubmed-95460332022-10-14 Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions Brambilla, Mattia Rubolini, Diego Appukuttan, Ojan Calvi, Gianpiero Karger, Dirk Nikolaus Kmecl, Primož Mihelič, Tomaž Sattler, Thomas Seaman, Benjamin Teufelbauer, Norbert Wahl, Johannes Celada, Claudio Glob Chang Biol Research Articles Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain‐specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high‐elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041–2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in‐situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex‐situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high‐resolution occurrence dataset (2901–12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%–59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km(2) of the Alpine region as in‐situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%–66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high‐elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-04-20 2022-07 /pmc/articles/PMC9546033/ /pubmed/35441422 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Brambilla, Mattia
Rubolini, Diego
Appukuttan, Ojan
Calvi, Gianpiero
Karger, Dirk Nikolaus
Kmecl, Primož
Mihelič, Tomaž
Sattler, Thomas
Seaman, Benjamin
Teufelbauer, Norbert
Wahl, Johannes
Celada, Claudio
Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
title Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
title_full Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
title_fullStr Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
title_full_unstemmed Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
title_short Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
title_sort identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9546033/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35441422
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187
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