Uncertainty Estimation Using Variational Mixture of Gaussians Capsule Network for Health Image Classification

Capsule Networks have shown great promise in image recognition due to their ability to recognize the pose, texture, and deformation of objects and object parts. However, the majority of the existing capsule networks are deterministic with limited ability to express uncertainty. Many of them tend to be overconfident on out-of-distribution data, making them less trustworthy and hence reducing their suitability for practical adoption in safety-critical areas such as health and self-driving cars. In this work, we propose a capsule network based on a variational mixture of Gaussians to train distributions of network weights as opposed to a single set of weights and enable the model to express its predictive uncertainty on out-of-distribution data. Training distributions of weights have the added advantage of avoiding overfitting on smaller datasets which are common in health and other fields. Although Bayesian neural networks are known to exhibit slow training and convergence, experimental results show that the proposed model can retrieve only relevant features, converge faster, is less computationally complex, can effectively express its predictive uncertainties, and achieve performance values that are comparable to the state-of-the-art models. This is an indication that CapsNets can exhibit the transparency, credibility, reliability, and interpretability required for practical adoption.