Estimating disability-adjusted life years for breast cancer and the impact of screening in female populations in China, 2015–2030: an exploratory prevalence-based analysis applying local weights

BACKGROUND: Most cancer disability-adjusted life year (DALY) studies worldwide have used broad, generic disability weights (DWs); however, differences exist among populations and types of cancers. Using breast cancer as example, this study aimed to estimate the population-level DALYs in females in China and the impact of screening as well as applying local DWs. METHODS: Using multisource data, a prevalence-based model was constructed. (1) Overall years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by using numbers of prevalence cases, stage-specific proportions, and local DWs for breast cancer. Numbers of females and new breast cancer cases as well as local survival rates were used to calculate the number of prevalence cases. (2) Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated using breast cancer mortality rates, female numbers and standard life expectancies. (3) The prevalence of and mortality due to breast cancer and associated DALYs from 2020 to 2030 were predicted using Joinpoint regression. (4) Assumptions considered for screening predictions included expanding coverage, reducing mortality due to breast cancer and improving early-stage proportion for breast cancer. RESULTS: In Chinese females, the estimated number of breast cancer DALYs was 2251.5 thousand (of 17.3% were YLDs) in 2015, which is predicted to increase by 26.7% (60.3% among those aged ≥ 65 years) in 2030 (2852.8 thousand) if the screening coverage (25.7%) stays unchanged. However, if the coverage can be achieved to 40.7% in 2030 (deduced from the “Healthy China Initiative”), DALYs would decrease by 1.5% among the screened age groups. Sensitivity analyses found that using local DWs would change the base-case values by ~ 10%. CONCLUSION: Estimates of DALYs due to breast cancer in China were lower (with a higher proportion of YLDs) than Global Burden of Disease Study numbers (2527.0 thousand, 8.2% were YLDs), suggesting the importance of the application of population-specific DWs. If the screening coverage remains unchanged, breast cancer-caused DALYs would continue to increase, especially among elderly individuals. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12963-022-00296-1.